A Bayesian network is a visual representation of Bayes rule – a statistical principle focused on conditional probability. Essentially, Bayesian networks enable understanding of the probability of an outcome given a number of factors that impact the outcome.

Incorporating Bayesian networks into strategic decision making has several benefits:

  1. Outputs are quantitative, enabling highly defendable strategic choices
  2. Predictive nature of Bayesian networks enables forward-looking analysis
  3. Predictive methodology is based on mathematical formalism, as opposed to “black-box” algorithms
  4. One intuitive, easy-to-read structure that accounts for as many inputs as necessary – compared to Excel-based models that can span multiple tabs, and whose complexity can inhibit use